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THE BLACK SWAN书籍详细信息
- ISBN：9780812973815
- 作者：暂无作者
- 出版社：暂无出版社
- 出版时间：2010-05
- 页数：480
- 价格：83.20
- 纸张：胶版纸
- 装帧：平装
- 开本：32开
- 语言：未知
- 丛书：暂无丛书
- TAG：暂无
- 豆瓣评分：暂无豆瓣评分
内容简介：
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal
characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact;
and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear
less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing
success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim
Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our
world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal
lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans
until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is
that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be
focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know
and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we
don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate
opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate,
and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can
imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool
ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We
restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while
large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in
this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what
we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing
with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and
universal in its applications "The Black Swan" will change the way
you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with
wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic
command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to
probability theory. "The Black Swan" is a landmark book-itself a
black swan. "From the Hardcover edition."
书籍目录：
Prologue
PART ONE:UMBERTO ECO'ANTILIBRARY,OR HOW WE VALIDATION
PART TOW:WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT
PART THREE:THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN
PART FOUR:THE END
POSTSCRIPT ESAY:ON ROBUSTNESS AND FRAGILITY,DEEPER PHILOSOPHLCAL
AND EMPLRICAL REFLECTILONS
作者介绍：
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and Principal of Universa. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages. He is widely recognized as the foremost thinker on probability and uncertainty. Taleb lives mostly in New York.
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媒体评论
A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed
improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking
and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan
events explain almost everything about our world, and yet
we--especially the experts--are blind to them. In this second
edition, Taleb has added a new essay, " On Robustness and
Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan
world.
书籍介绍
A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
*2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"
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新颖与独特：7分
情感共鸣：4分
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